Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, there are some very big warning signs for Republicans in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
The survey of 1,443 adults, conducted from Nov. 10-13 found:
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Democrats holding their largest advantage, 14 points, since 2017 on the question of who respondents would vote for if the midterm elections were held today;
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Trump’s approval rating is just 39%, his lowest since right after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol;
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A combined 6-in-10 blame congressional Republicans or Trump for the government shutdown; and
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Nearly 6-in-10 say Trump’s top priority should be lowering prices — and no other issue comes close.
That’s true, but it’s also true that this map may be the best shot they have to pick up seats. I don’t think I’ve ever heard someone say that a senate map looks good for Democrats. In 2028 they’ll have what, Arizona and North Carolina? Well, and the VP, potentially (and having to replace Fetterman). And in 2030, just Ohio and Pennsylvania? I don’t see any chance of winning Iowa but whether there’s even a remote possibility of them gaining a majority in future elections will depend on whether they can narrow to one or two seats here.