Ukraine maintained every part of the Minsk agreement reasonable to keep while Russia was in blatant violation of the agreement. Russia agreed to a withdraw of military forces from Ukraine (including the Dombass region) and refused to do so after signing the agreement. This constrained what Ukraine could reasonably do under the circumstances. To Russia, the agreements were a hiatus in a bigger fight.

The LPR and DPR are not recognized as legitimate entities under the Minsk Agreements. They were added without consent by Ukraine after Ukraine had already signed the agreement.

Russia, what they gain is security

Yes, now bombs fall on Russian cities, power plants go dark, and refineries are on fire.

if this is for “vainglory,” why limit it to the Donbass region

Russia has already expanded their territorial claims beyond the Dombass.

Russia has proven capable of fighting an attrition war that Ukraine cannot

Neither side is doing well. If Russia was capable, they’d be gaining more than a few meters every day.

Russian population benefiting massively from strengthened ties with China

Russian demographics are in the toilet and friendship with China isn’t going to help.

Russia has been strengthened economically

A wartime economy produces encouraging economic figures but cannot be sustained and, when the war produces this kind of strain, the post-war economy is economic collapse. The war has to end someday and it will be ugly for the Russian people when that happens.

I gather that English is probably a second language for you, so I assume you have confused terms. Balkanization is not a color revolution. Balkanization is when a larger country breaks apart into several smaller countries. For example, if a political crisis resulted in a power vacuum within Russia sufficient for the Buryats to declare an independent republic, along with the Yakuts and several others. That would be Balkanization. These new nations would be weak and would be vulnerable to political or military capture by China. The US does not want that. A color revolution, on the other hand, could be a number of things, but most likely a change in the leadership in Moscow without producing a plethora of fracturing states. If the current political regime in Moscow was replaced by one more friendly to liberal, democratic, and market-oriented institutions, that’s one the US would favor, especially if it prevented Balkanization.

Do you bother reading the links you post? Or are you just trying to weaponize time against an ideological opponent? The paper does not address Russian balkanization or the setup of bases in a post-Russian landscape.

The US does not want the collapse of the Russian state and balkanization because the US believes that China would use the opportunity to grab resource rich land from Russia. US’s interests is in Russia being whole, powerful enough to prevent a vacuum, but not so powerful as to be a threat to neighbors. The US does not want Russian land to become Chinese land. And that’s probably what would happen if Russia balkanized.

Finland & Sweden were not controversial for admission and even these took much effort. Hungary has made clear they would never support Ukraine inside NATO. But even if their politics changed to allow it, the Turkish would never allow it, no matter which political party runs Turkey.

But let’s say that Ukraine did join NATO. So what? NATO is a defense treaty and a standards organization. Being a member of NATO just makes you a little harder to invade, it is not a threat to non-NATO neighbors. If Russia did not have an “invade your neighbor” mindset, there would be zero problem with all her neighbors being NATO members. That Russia has a problem with the idea of Ukraine inside NATO is an indication that Russia does not respect borders or national sovereignty of her neighbors. That she opposes it is the reason it is reasonably desired.

1. If you sincerely believe there’s a military industrial complex, you should read these reports and watch the accompanying video: Link.

2. If the people of Taiwan held a legitimate referendum to unify with China, there’s nothing the US could do to stop it. What the US can help stop is a violent invasion and the Chinese military has been readying for exactly that mission. China’s peak ability to do so will be 2027 or 2028 after which most analysts agree that their ability will diminish due to internal demographic & economic issues, US & Taiwan preparedness, and a changing in technology that increasingly favors defense.

There was a time that peaceful unification was possible. That was before China destroyed Hong Kong’s system of democratic rule. The people of Taiwan watched what happened and decided right then that promises given prior to unification would never last under Chinese rule.

It requires more effort to spread intelligent ideas.

The weapons producers are tiny companies in comparison. If a senator got a call from Apple and from Rheinmetall at the same time, he would 100% take the Apple call first. China wants the US to be bogged down with Ukraine when China invades Taiwan. Keeping this war going is the cover they desire to pull off their upcoming territorial expansion which will not be limited to Taiwan.

You may have noticed that all these military bases are easily supplied through naval support. My prior comment was about supply lines. You are never going to get reliable supply lines for American military through 11 time zones of difficult to transit Russian territory. Your map is also a bit bogus. There’s no military base in Pakistan. A small one operated until 2017, to support troops in Afghanistan, but was not sustainable. There’s never been a US military base inside India.

Yes, China has the geopolitical challenge of US bases in the Pacific. These are easily resupplied and support supply chains. It should also be noted that US military presence does not harm China’s ability to conduct trade, execute domestic policy, or retain her sovereignty. China gripes about US “freedom of seas” navigations, because China has naval claims nobody else recognizes, but that’s not a problem any other nation on the globe cares about.

Yes, this is about vainglory. Ukraine was seeing membership in the EU and the EU mandated reforms that would have addressed issues for minorities. The principle problem was the question of minority groups having school taught in their native language. That was a specific reform mandated. Following the process would yield the desired outcome without any Russian citizens being thrown into a meatwave attack. How has this war benefited Russian-speakers? So many deaths and scarred bodies and souls. The payoff isn’t there. The proposition only favors vainglory because the current path is more harm than any alternative. Regarding NATO, neither Hungary nor Turkey would ever permit this to happen and everyone knows it. Admission into NATO requires 100% support for all existing nations. Russia knows this would never happen. It isn’t about NATO membership. Putin wants to restore the Russian empire and he wants to be recorded in the history books as the man who made this happen.

Russians are dying because Putin places his own vanity and desire for future “glory” over the lives of the Russian people. The was ends the second he calls off the invasion.

Humans have always been stupid but today technology has made it easier for the dumbest among us to be more influential than any stupid person of any prior era. This, we are in the golden age of stupidity.

When countries in the Sahel asked the US to leave, they left. What Africa gets with Wagner/Russia is entirely different: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-kremlin-wagner-group-influence-in-central-african-republic-sudan-mali/a-70599853

Yes, because we are going to cross 11 time zones to setup in western China when the logistics of that area make trade between Russia & China difficult when they are on good terms. Before anything else, the US military is a logistics organization and your fantasy is quite unrealistic. I doubt China fears any such thing, knowing that what you suggest is entirely unrealistic.

I am not sure your point? Virtually all of them under-performed the S&P500.

You watch too much social media.

Ukraine relies on US, UK, France, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Italy, Canada, and a bunch of other countries to survive and repel the unjust invader Russia. China doesn’t want Russia to lose but also doesn’t want them to win. Too much money to be made by Chinese businesses profiting by the unjust invasion. Plus, it’ll be terribly convenient for them if the US is distracted when China invades Taiwan.

Given the stock price, I’m not concerned. Up a lot this year. Brief dip followed by recovery due to China’s news.

Which country benefits from this the most? Russia. Which country suffers the most? Ukraine.

That said, if China wants the US to become a rare earths giant, this is the way. The oil crisis of the 1970’s and 1980’s created the economic conditions needed for American oil to become a dominating industry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_activities_in_Africa

Remind me, what was their solution? Turning the slaves, mines, and colonies over to Wagner Group?

Such unbiased sourcing!