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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • Their “oligarchs”. LOL.

    That’s a different part of the world, it’s not “oligarchs”, it’s just the government and politicians and a significant part of society in every European country. Eastern Europe might even be a bit better in this regard than Western, because of relatively recent historical memory.

    You have to deserve “oligarchs” first. They didn’t. You ask some granny in any European country, that granny will likely be in favor of full-on totalitarianism because they are a law-abiding society and there should be order, and people thinking they have natural rights are extremists.

    You in your land of the weird joke about “freedumb” and “mass shooter rights” and “free hate speech”, not understanding that the reason Europeans too joke about those is not them seeing your problems as they are, but because they (except for France and maybe some Scandinavian ones, and, eh, maybe Switzerland) unironically have problems with the ideas of freedom, equality, limits of mandate, right to rebellion and free speech. Half the European nations are monarchies or recent monarchies or recent fascist nations or ex-Commie nations.

    You there joke about these treating it as a given that you have those rights, just some jerks abuse them, while Europeans joke because they don’t have those rights and don’t treat them as certain. There’s nothing in UK’s or even Germany’s constitutional laws that admits that their citizens are free people with right to rebellion and to freedom of expression and association, even if someone in some other law writes that they are not.


  • I’m thinking, honestly, what if that’s the planned purpose of this bubble.

    I’m explaining - those “AI”'s involve assembling large datasets and making them available, poisoning the Web, and creating demand for for a specific kind of hardware.

    When it bursts, not everything bursts.

    Suddenly there will be plenty of no longer required hardware usable for normal ML applications like face recognition, voice recognition, text analysis to identify its author, combat drones with target selection, all kinds of stuff. It will be dirt cheap, compared to its current price, as it was with Sun hardware after the dotcom crash.

    There still will be those datasets, that can be analyzed for plenty of purposes. Legal or not, they are already processed into usable and convenient state.

    There will be the Web covered with a great wall of China tall layer of AI slop.

    There will likely be a bankrupt nation which will have a lot of things failing due to that.

    And there will still be all the centralized services. Suppose on that day you go search something in Google, and there’s only the Google summary present, no results list (or maybe even a results list, whatever, but suddenly weighed differently), saying that you’ve been owned by domestic enemies yadda-yadda and the patriotic corporations are implementing a popular state of emergency or something like that. You go to Facebook, and when you write something there, your messages are premoderated by an AI so that you’d not be able to god forbid say something wrong. An LLM might not be able to support a decent enough conversation, but to edit out things you say, or PGP keys you send, in real time without anything appearing strange - easily. Or to change some real person’s style of speech to yours.

    Suppose all of not-degoogled Android installations start doing things like that, Amazon’s logistics suddenly start working to support a putsch, Facebook and WhatsApp do what I described or just fail, Apple makes a presentation of a new, magnificent, ingenious, miraculous, patriotic change to a better system of government, maybe even with Johnny Ive as the speaker, and possibly does the same unnoticeable censorship, Microsoft pushes one malicious update 3 months earlier with a backdoor to all Windows installations doing the same, and commits its datacenters to the common effort, and let’s just say it’s possible that a similar thing is done by some Linux developer believing in an idea and some of the major distributions - don’t need it doing much, just to provide a backdoor usable remotely.

    I don’t list Twitter because honestly it doesn’t seem to work well enough or have coverage good enough.

    So - this seems a pretty possible apocalypse scenario which does lead to a sudden installation of a dictatorial regime with all the necessary surveillance, planning, censorship and enforcement already being functioning systems.

    So - of course apocalypse scenarios were a normal thing in movies for many years and many times, but it’s funny how the more plausible such become, the less often they are described in art.



  • Well, lacking troops due to big demographic and agricultural changes outside your control is not the same as being a paper tiger. Their internal turmoil coincided with a military threat.

    Also western thalassocracies have been accused of being largely paper tigers a few times in their history, yet from Ottomans to Napoleon to German Empire to USSR no contenders managed to prove it.

    OK, what matters is the OP’s point on lies. I agree with that entirely. Lies brought the USSR down, and the same has unfortunately caught up with its Cold War adversaries. It just became visible a bit earlier that this state is not going into space colonizing everything and is not building a classless society with everyone equal and free. But 40 years later, I think, we can confidently say that neither is USA fulfilling its own “cold war promise”. 30 years ago I suspect even many Americans sincerely believed that it is. Everyone thought it was one side’s defeat, while in fact it was a draw with both sides failing.



  • That would happen with machine-generated texts in my childhood (00s) as well.

    I think the propagandized (by Apple and many other companies, but also just by stupid reductions) idea of “invention” is why they think that.

    They’ve been literally taught that the people making “inventions” are always “rebels” who disregard existing knowledge.

    It’s especially funny that in the areas more familiar to them they are all for authority even when it’s suicidal madness.

    It’s harmful when you make yourself believe that a machine comfortable to use, with state-of-the-art electronics with tech processes hardly achievable in many places on the planet, advertised and visually designed to please, sold on scale big enough to make it worth it, - that this is a result of some rebellion.

    Rebellions don’t look like that. This is how gifts from the emperor of the sun from his forbidden palace look. They are nice too, but nothing in common with rebellions, like at all.

    Like a cargo cult.

    I think it’s actually related in essence to cargo cults - first European empires (or one can even call it one big empire) traded important resources and slaves for colored glass, then for nice clothes, then for weapons, and eventually they started trading them for the actual meat of their culture, creating colonial elites and, in their perception, spreading the empire to only good effect. If the colonial savages only learned muskets, and started to produce muskets, it’s both no income and danger, but if you make them more integrated and dependent, they are not going to shoot at you.

    So. Marx happens. Marx is notoriously industrialist in focus and in his model colonies are just reduced to some black box. That’s exactly why Marxist and derived ideas became so popular in former colonies and dependent countries, they could draw in place of that black box whatever they wanted, and yet have a common internationalist ideological family, allowing for some alliances and understanding. There was a bridge in the form of Russia - industrialist Marxism mixed with various agrarian ideologies and created the Bolshevik one, of using peasantry to create a “socialist” regime first, and then industrialize, sort of with an inferiority complex. For ex-colonies and dependent lands, though, the agrarian part was the most important one, that allowed them to culturally bond with the imperial core through anti-imperial ideology that gave them freedom to do whatever they want.

    Then during the Cold War the empire reformed itself, and it sort of in appearances chose a middle ground. It both internalized some of the Marxist emotion and imagery, and adjusted the imperial mechanism for global trade and exchange. It also used the split between USSR and China. That’s how it defeated the USSR (though mostly USSR defeated itself).

    So - one of the ways to not turn this iteration of global trade and exchange into yet another spread of power to dependent world was, I think, this kind of centralization and heavy propaganda. The glossy, 00s-style portrayal of “the western world” like one big Disneyland entertainment park, with a “rebel” being able to change it all and make some of that entertainment too.

    It simply eventually spread back because that always happens.

    #1 Why the hell did I write that, #2 it’s not some conspiracy theory, I think most of that was happening naturally, not devised by some evil conglomerate of elites.


  • Late stage western Rome was kinda fine, they even had Christianity kinda receding (Goths and Vandals were far more pious Christians, while in Rome there was plenty of support for restoring the old state religion). What really killed them was intrigue and inability to hold the territory militarily.

    Late stage eastern Rome can be divided into a few different long periods. If we mean after being crusaded, then it was shattered and trying to recombine into something useful, eventually finished by Ottomans. If we mean before - well, there was the long period of Seljuk conquest of Anatolia, initially a result of the empire being weakened by conquests against its buffer states and allies which didn’t really have to be conquered. But in any case it’s probable that the same thing would happen, the Seljuk armies of the initial invasion time are described as quite numerous, and they had a few military innovations east Romans didn’t have.






  • who fall for AI /crypto are mostly conservatives

    Let’s separate these two things.

    The latter does work well enough to be used by a kind of people. That it’s not the new revolution is fine. I’ve recently looked through NOSTR NIPs and they make a huge thing out of functionality for sending “zaps”, and you know why? Because payments mean possibility to send universal value for some subjective value. It’s a difference in efficiency between barter and money almost.

    I can’t be proud of it, because, despite sharing libertarian ideas, I was highly skeptical of such systems. One can say I was gaslighted into considering it all having become a scam.

    So - NOSTR looks like something that will work. Its standards involve a lot of different functionality, so clients usually decide to implement only part of it - some like Reddit\Lemmy communities, some like Telegram group chats, and so on (it kinda seems to even out with time, Amethyst has recently got group chats, for example). And thus it often seems devoid of life for new people. But it’s already big enough for the search results to not seem particularly right-wing skewed.

    So - I’ve noticed that people very often send these “zaps”. It’s normal to tip stuff in NOSTR. Already.

    It’s a long-term advantage, but that system in its architecture is far better than Fediverse, that’s what I mean.

    And honestly it’s not unheard of for left-wing technical projects to use good tooling and competent people and appear impressive, but long-term lose to right-wing technical projects which use some tooling and some people and don’t appear too cool, but are more applicable socially.

    I really feel like trying to write a NOSTR client, LOL.


  • It’s mathematically an insult to life itself. It changes evolution in human societies to reduce dissent and diversity of thought. And evolution is important in the sense that to stay on one place you have to run very fast.

    So it’s sort of a tool for regress. Honestly - similar to the Web itself. It was intended as a hypertext system for scientists. For social interaction there were e-mail and e-news.

    I’m thinking - I thought always that Sun is a very cool company, but at the same time they are also the ones who’ve popularized this messy understanding of the future in which, with some commercial adjustments by today’s big tech, we still live. And that understanding was highly centralist, sort of a digital empire.