AI tools are actually improving at a rate faster than most junior engineers I have worked with, and about 30% of junior engineers I have worked with never really “graduated” to a level that I would trust them to do anything independently, even after 5 years in the job. Those engineers “find their niche” doing something other than engineering with their engineering job titles, and that’s great, but don’t ever trust them to build you a bridge or whatever it is they seem to have been hired to do.
Now, as for AI, it’s currently as good or “better” than about 40% of brand-new fresh from the BS program software engineers I have worked with. A year ago that number probably would have been 20%. So far it’s improving relatively quickly. The question is: will it plateau, or will it improve exponentially?
Many things in tech seem to have an exponential improvement phase, followed by a plateau. CPU clock speed is a good example of that. Storage density/cost is one that doesn’t seem to have hit a plateau yet. Software quality/power is much harder to gauge, but it definitely is still growing more powerful / capable even as it struggles with bloat and vulnerabilities.
The question I have is: will AI continue to write “human compatible” software, or is it going to start writing code that only AI understands, but people rely on anyway? After all, the code that humans write is incomprehensible to 90%+ of the humans that use it.
Now, as for AI, it’s currently as good or “better” than about 40% of brand-new fresh from the BS program software engineers I have worked with. A year ago that number probably would have been 20%. So far it’s improving relatively quickly. The question is: will it plateau, or will it improve exponentially?
Huh? I’m definitely not hyping AI. If anything it would be the opposite. We’re also literally in the comment section for an a study about AI productivity which is the first remotely reputable study I’ve even seen. The rest have been rigged marketing stunts. As far as judging my opinion about the productivity of AI against junior developers against studies, why don’t you bring me one that isn’t “we made an artificial test then directly trained our LLM on the questions so it will look good for investors”? I’ll wait.
Yeah but a Claude/Cursor/whatever subscription costs $20/month and a junior engineer costs real money. Are the tools 400 times less useful than a junior engineer? I’m not so sure…
This line of thought is short sighted. Your senior engineers will eventually retire or leave the company. If everyone replaces junior engineers with ai, then there will be nobody with the experience to fill those empty seats. Then you end up with no junior engineers and no senior engineers, so who is wrangling the ai?
This isn’t black and white. There will always be some junior hires. No one is saying replace ALL of them. But hiring 1 junior engineer instead of 3? Maybe…and that’s already happening to some degree.
Not that I agree, but if you believe that the LLMs will continuously improve, then in 5-10 years you may only need 1/3rd the seniors, to oversee and prompt. Again, that’s what these CEOs are relying on.
They might become seniors for 99% more investment. Or they crash out as “not a great fit” which happens too. Juniors aren’t just “senior seeds” to be planted
Interesting downvotes, especially how there are more than there are upvotes.
Do people think “junior” and “senior” here just relate to age and/or time in the workplace? Someone could work in software dev for 20 years and still be a junior dev. It’s knowledge and skill level based, not just time-in-industry based.
Exactly what you would expect from a junior engineer.
Let them run unsupervised and you have a mess to clean up. Guide them with context and you’ve got a second set of capable hands.
Something something craftsmen don’t blame their tools
AI tools are way less useful than a junior engineer, and they aren’t an investment that turns into a senior engineer either.
They’re tools that can help a junior engineer and a senior engineer with their job.
Given a database, AI can probably write a data access layer in whatever language you want quicker than a junior developer could.
AI tools are actually improving at a rate faster than most junior engineers I have worked with, and about 30% of junior engineers I have worked with never really “graduated” to a level that I would trust them to do anything independently, even after 5 years in the job. Those engineers “find their niche” doing something other than engineering with their engineering job titles, and that’s great, but don’t ever trust them to build you a bridge or whatever it is they seem to have been hired to do.
Now, as for AI, it’s currently as good or “better” than about 40% of brand-new fresh from the BS program software engineers I have worked with. A year ago that number probably would have been 20%. So far it’s improving relatively quickly. The question is: will it plateau, or will it improve exponentially?
Many things in tech seem to have an exponential improvement phase, followed by a plateau. CPU clock speed is a good example of that. Storage density/cost is one that doesn’t seem to have hit a plateau yet. Software quality/power is much harder to gauge, but it definitely is still growing more powerful / capable even as it struggles with bloat and vulnerabilities.
The question I have is: will AI continue to write “human compatible” software, or is it going to start writing code that only AI understands, but people rely on anyway? After all, the code that humans write is incomprehensible to 90%+ of the humans that use it.
LOL sure
I’m not talking about the ones that get hired in your 'leet shop, I’m talking about the whole damn crop that’s just graduated.
Is “way less useful” something you can cite with a source, or is that just feelings?
It is based on my experience, which I trust immeasurably more than rigged “studies” done by the big LLM companies with clear conflict of interest.
Okay, but like-
You could just be lying.
You could even be a chatbot, programmed to hype AI in comments sections.
So I’m going to trust studies, not some anonymous commenter on the internet who says “trust me bro!”
Huh? I’m definitely not hyping AI. If anything it would be the opposite. We’re also literally in the comment section for an a study about AI productivity which is the first remotely reputable study I’ve even seen. The rest have been rigged marketing stunts. As far as judging my opinion about the productivity of AI against junior developers against studies, why don’t you bring me one that isn’t “we made an artificial test then directly trained our LLM on the questions so it will look good for investors”? I’ll wait.
Understood, thanks for being honest
Yeah but a Claude/Cursor/whatever subscription costs $20/month and a junior engineer costs real money. Are the tools 400 times less useful than a junior engineer? I’m not so sure…
The point is that comparing AI tools to junior engineers is ridiculous in the first place. It is simply marketing.
Even at $100/month you’re comparing to a > $10k/month junior. 1% of the cost for certainly > 1% functionality of a junior.
You can see why companies are tripping over themselves to push this new modality.
I was just ballparking the salary. Say it’s only 100x. Does the argument change? It’s a lot more money to pay for a real person.
Wasn’t it clear that our comments are in agreement?
It wasn’t, but now it is.
❤️
This line of thought is short sighted. Your senior engineers will eventually retire or leave the company. If everyone replaces junior engineers with ai, then there will be nobody with the experience to fill those empty seats. Then you end up with no junior engineers and no senior engineers, so who is wrangling the ai?
This isn’t black and white. There will always be some junior hires. No one is saying replace ALL of them. But hiring 1 junior engineer instead of 3? Maybe…and that’s already happening to some degree.
And when the current senior programmers retire the field of juniors that are coming to replace them will be much smaller.
Not that I agree, but if you believe that the LLMs will continuously improve, then in 5-10 years you may only need 1/3rd the seniors, to oversee and prompt. Again, that’s what these CEOs are relying on.
The difference being junior engineers eventually grow up into senior engineers.
Does every junior eventually achieve becoming a senior?
No, but that’s the only way you get senior engineers!
I agree, but the goal of CEOs is “line go up,” not make our eng team stronger (usually)
Capitalism, shortsighted? Say it ain’t so!
Except junior engineers become seniors. If you don’t understand this … are you HR?
They might become seniors for 99% more investment. Or they crash out as “not a great fit” which happens too. Juniors aren’t just “senior seeds” to be planted
Interesting downvotes, especially how there are more than there are upvotes.
Do people think “junior” and “senior” here just relate to age and/or time in the workplace? Someone could work in software dev for 20 years and still be a junior dev. It’s knowledge and skill level based, not just time-in-industry based.