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This doesn’t really tell me anything, I’d have to compare it with other charts. E.g. what does the chart for agriculture look like? Airplane manufacturing? Internet in early 2000s?
Burn it all to the ground
More like the 2000s bubble.
But where is Palantir on this? Because they’re discernibly connected to several of these orgs, and that displays the character of what this is actually about.
Everyday Ai
IS there a mundane, everyday Ai ?
So how dangerous is that really? I assume one day we’ll finally see investors saying, “Nah, that’s a bubble. I’m not gonna see any returns from those companies - I’m selling.” Then stock prices will fall, and some investors will lose money by selling for less than they bought. After that, AI unicorns will start to lose funding and close their businesses, laying off people.
But will I - a person who does not work in the AI industry and has not invested in AI companies - be affected by this?
One thing people didn’t mention is that I’m pretty sure the top 10% of Americans by income make up 50% of consumption because of the heavily K shaped revovery that has happened. These Americans have a large percentage of their wealth in stocks, and if the stock market crashes, they will feel less wealthy and less willing to spend, decreasing their spending, tanking the US economy.
Boo hoo. Rich people become less rich.
Yes, you absolutely will be effected.
In a general way, the plebs always do the heavy lifting - a universal truth since the dawn of time.
More specifically, your pension / 401k will lose a heap of money.
As the economy contracts there will be lay offs.
That means loan defaults, et cetera.
I don’t know the answer, but during 2008 onwards (seems like the economy didn’t fully recover until the end of Obama’s presidency), every industry slowed down. Was hard for me to get a fast food job or consistent minimum wage assembly line work through temp agencies. Things can go into vicious positive feedback loops during downturns (investors afraid to invest due to bad economic outlook -> factories and such don’t get built or expanded -> unemployment rises -> people spend less -> companies start laying off -> economic outlook worsens -> investors selling and moving to "safer’ assets -> …). The entire banking system pretty much imploded during 2008; I don’t know how much exposure banks have to AI (commercial real estate is another thing to worry about though). With any luck the AI crash would be more like the dot-com crash, which mostly just hurt one industry (but I remember my father talking about factory layoffs during that too).
Pension funds are to a large extent exposed to the stock indices. Since these companies grow and grow in valuation, a larger portion of pension funds are exposed to these companies. The so-called “magnificent seven” make up about 35% of the US stock market now. A lot of people will see a large portion of their pension savings affected by this. If you are not a US citizen, you sre still likely exposed to these companies.
Were you affected by the dotcom bubble?
Maybe the remaining tech companies, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, might raise prices of their products to cover the losses.
nvidia cards would cost as much as a good used car.
It needs to burst into non-existence.
Christ, I thought Everyday AI was going to be yet another stupid AI company.
Anyone notice how far crypto dropped? I think Tesla’s next, then maybe AI at same time or right after
Crypto had it’s black monday.
The fall may have been accelerated by portfolio insurance hedging (using computer-based models to buy or sell index futures in various stock market conditions) or a self-reinforcing contagion of fear
Algorithms and feedback loops gummed up all the crypto exchanges and liquidity disappeared.
The crypto tide went out and we all saw who wasn’t wearing any shorts.
Wasn’t that just a temporary drop so that some whales could get richer on shorts?
Zoom out past a week? 5-10% swings are not uncommon.
Isn’t crypto being massaged by trump atm, so erratic is kinda the new normal? (And, not erratic from trumps view)
It’s objectively a bad thing when a country’s entire economy is being propped up by seven companies and the vast majority of consumer spending is concentrated in the top 1%.
Basically Dutch Disease.
I feel money itself is our new Dutch disease. We live and die according to the flux of money in the global economy/stock markets…
Are there any theories like that out there? Because money start to no longer function correctly IMO.
The most optimistic take I’ve seen: AI is a drain on the entire economy that sucks up all investment and this is why the rest of the economy is basically in a recession. Once the bubble pops, investors will flood back into the real economy and correct the problem.
I’m not optimistic.
Can the AI bubble please suck up all the housing investment?
The way to make a big dent in that is to tax unused housing, with peogressivwly increasing amounts as they continue unoccupied. And limit or outright deny ownership by companies and investment firms.
We have more than enough housing for everyone, but a large portion of it sits unused. In many cases only because no one will/can pay what some of these companies are demanding monthly for them.
Specially when those companies are valued in TRILLIONS. Nothing is worth trillions, somehow these surreal numbers have been accepted as hard fact.
Nothing is worth trillions,
There is things worth trillions. Like full countries, and the largest pension funds and social security funds. Having a single company be comparable to those massive collections of people is insane, and it’s because they think it can replace workers–when it can’t, not yet, and not fo a long time
Evaluations of everything is crazy. Net worth of celebrities with make up lines in particular is crazy. Look how many celebs are worth a billion dollars. To be worth that much, they should be selling at least $50 millions a year of product with no prediction of winding down.
Hahaha this is fine, I am fine with this, what could possibly go wrong
Yep it’s such a fragile situation
Looks more like the dot com bubble to me.
Is it just me, or are the bubbles coming closer together these days?
Global economy has inflation since what, middle of the last century? Since slavery and colonies stopped being a thing?
Yes! The problem is that we won’t accept the full correction that is actually required. We print money, we buy securities, we find ways to prop to reduce the pain but we end up shifting the weakness to other areas of the economy.
The amounts going around now are getting too big for a government to cover. Instead of too big to fail, they’re now too big to bail.
Nonsense. We can print an unlimited amount of dollars.
That sure sounds like “to save the economy, we need to destroy the economy”.
Well if they want to devalue the US dollar…that’ll do it.
Last time I checked gold and silver were at all time highs and the dollar was down more than 10% YTD.
Like tax paying individuals
Yep so now when it hits it’s going to be really bad.
They do look like bubbles.
It’ll crash when there isn’t enough electric power to fulfill all those contractual obligations.
They will just cut power to people’s houses. What are the Americans gonna do? Rise up and rebel? lol
this looks nothing like a cdo
Oh, but you can bet your bottom dollar there are still something like 20:1 ratio of dark-market
betssynthetic collateral against these shares further underpinning valuations.Legitimately fear that this will make the ‘08 meltdown look quaint in comparison, as the fiscal stress will not be limited to shares but impact loads of financial instruments (home and car loans, retirement accounts etc.).
It’s the 20s right now my dude, there is only one way this ends: Great Depression 2: AI Boogaloo
